Mrs. Met Loves Me

Mini Manny

Now everyone knows that Omar Minaya may have pulled the trigger early on the Mike Cameron for Xavier Nady trade. The values just don’t match up. Minaya could have held onto Cameron until now and had a very valuable chip in the ongoing bullpen, and second baseman search. Well I for one don’t think that the trade was as devastating as it may seem. When I looked at Victor Diaz’s numbers from last year I realized that Diaz is a cheaper version of Cameron, only a little better. Don’t believe me? Take a look.

I highly recommend you go out and purchase The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2006 this off-season for it will be helping me to understand many of the woes I aggravated over sitting in Shea. You can purchase it right here: http://www.actasports.com/detail.html?&id=076
It will be an invaluable tool for the purpose of my analysis this winter and beyond. There are no shortages of smart articles from every aspect of the league and the stats are incredibly detailed and insightful. Anyway, lets proceed:

Cameron R RBI PA O P/PA H 2B 3B HR TB K BB SB CS GDP BA OBP SLG RC
47 39 343 230 4.06 84 23 2 12 147 85 27 13 1 5 .273 .342 .477 54
Diaz 26 41 313 223 3.69 72 17 3 12 131 82 30 6 2 13 .257 .329 .468 37
Diaz
+/- -21 +2 -30 -7 -0.37 -12 -6 +1 -16 -3 +3 -7 +1 +8 -.016 -.013 -.009 -17

As we can see from these numbers, they are pretty comparable. Obviously Diaz is slower, grounds into many more double plays, and does not score or create runs well. However, in the long run against right-handed pitchers, he will strike out less, hit more home runs, and create less outs. I think that it is reasonable to assume that with another half season of experience, Diaz will gain more plate discipline and his power numbers will go up. For a bargain basement price he is a cheap replacement for the fleet footed six million dollar man Cameron. On top of the fact that Cameron is a much more valuable center fielder and that Diaz will be more accustomed to a half season role like last year.

Secondly, something that may surprise you, Diaz’s range factor was actually HIGHER than Cameron in right field. 2.14 vs. 2.09

Mini Manny also had a higher fielding percentage of .981 vs. .958

Now we all saw him botch at least 10 plays that I can count in my head, but it is a simple idea that Billy Beane taught us in Moneyball. Defense does not matter. Why? Because if your offense can overcome the defensive weakness, it is a moot point.

Now this all wont matter if Big Manny is patrolling left field next spring now, will it?

posted by brazenindustriousness @ 12/12/2005 11:44:00 PM